Mismatch Map · live

Where stats and price disagree

Every Top-300 prospect with stats and a card price, plotted by how their numbers rank against how their card ranks. Dots below the diagonal are the alpha — the bat is ahead of the market. Dots above are the trap — the price has run ahead of the production.

How to read it. The x-axis is the player's composite stat percentile (hitters vs hitters, pitchers vs pitchers). The y-axis is where their base Bowman Chrome 1st auto avg ranks against every other Top-300 prospect's card. The dashed 45° line is "fair value" — stat and market agree. The faded band either side is the ±20 gutter we use to label something fairly priced. Beyond the band is where the disagreement is real.

Sharpest mismatches right now

Top five in each direction, sorted by gap. Click any name to see the prospect's full page with live listings.

↓ Underpriced (bat ahead of market)

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↑ Overpriced (market ahead of bat)

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The asterisks

A handful of things to keep in mind before you click "buy" on anything you saw here.

Small samples bite. Early-season stat percentiles are noisy. A 40-PA hot streak can dump a prospect into the 90th percentile temporarily; verify with their page before acting. The methodology page spells out the minimums.

Price = base BC 1st auto only. The market percentile uses base Bowman Chrome 1st auto avg — the hobby's anchor card. Parallels, refractors, and graded copies are not in this chart. Don't infer your /numbered refractor's value from a dot here.

Pitchers are noisier than hitters. Minor-league FIP swings hard on small IP. We include them because they're in the catalog, but treat pitcher dots as a wider error bar than hitter dots.

This is a screenshot, not a recommendation. The chart refreshes daily.