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Where stats and card prices disagree
Every Top 400 prospect with a 2026 stat line and a 1st Bowman Chrome auto price, plotted stats against price.
Prices updated daily · stats as of Nov 3
Prospects plotted208
208 sold prices0 asking
Stats ahead of price44
Forbes +60Aponte +58Martinez +52
Price ahead of stats58
Hernández −63Kim −62Vries −57
In line (within 20)106
price aheadstats ahead
The map
Below the dashed line, the stats rank higher than the card price. Above it, the price ranks higher than the stats.
Show
Drawing 208 prospects…
Sold priceAsking onlyStats and price agreeIn line (within 20)Faded dots: small sample or rookie ball
Biggest gaps
The 8 widest gaps each way, hitters and pitchers together.
Percentiles, not pricesBoth axes are ranks from 0 to 100. Hitters are ranked against hitters and pitchers against pitchers; every card is ranked against every other card.
Sold firstDots use a verified SportsCardsPro sold price for the base 1st Bowman Chrome auto. Hollow orange dots have no trusted sale yet and use the live asking average. Parallels and graded cards are not in it.
Small samples biteLines under 150 plate appearances or 40 innings, and rookie-ball-only lines, are faded and flagged. Pitcher numbers swing more than hitter numbers.
Stats miss thingsPower hitters who strike out a lot can rank low on this mix. Age, level, injuries and scouting grades all move prices for good reasons. How we build it
Questions
What is the Mismatch Map?
A chart of every Top 400 MLB prospect with a 2026 stat line and a priced 1st Bowman Chrome auto. It places each player by how their stats rank against other prospects (across) and how their card price ranks against other cards (up). The dashed line is where the two agree. Prospects more than 20 points off the line are where stats and price disagree.
How is the stats percentile worked out?
Hitters are compared with hitters on four things: overall hitting (wRC+), power (ISO), plate discipline (walk rate minus strikeout rate) and speed. Pitchers are compared with pitchers on strikeout rate, walk rate, strikeout minus walk rate and FIP. The four percentiles are averaged.
Which card price does the map use?
The raw base Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman autograph. A verified sold price from SportsCardsPro places the dot when we have one (208 of 208 right now). Otherwise it uses the average live eBay asking price, shown as a hollow orange dot.
Does a dot below the line mean the card is a buy?
No. It means the stats rank higher than the price does. Small samples, rookie-ball numbers, injuries, age and scouting grades all move prices for good reasons the stats do not capture. Use it as a place to start looking, then check the prospect page.
How often does the map update?
Card prices refresh daily. Stats are the 2026 season lines, last updated Nov 3.
